PUBLISHED SEASONAL OUTLOOK
Connor's Climate Corner - Fall Outlook Fall · Sep 1, 2026 – Nov 30, 2026 • Confidence 3/5 • Posted Aug 25, 2026
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CLIMATE DRIVERS · 10 El Niño · Very strong Westerly QBO (QBO+) · Influence 3/5 +PDO · Influence 3/5 +NPO · Influence 2/5 +PNA · Influence 3/5 +EPO · Influence 2/5 +WPO · Influence 2/5 +AO · Influence 3/5 +NAO · Influence 2/5 MJO Phase 8 · ASO · Influence 2/5
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
AL — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) AK — no tendency assigned AZ — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) CO — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) FL — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) GA — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) IN — no tendency assigned KS — no tendency assigned ME — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) MA — no tendency assigned MN — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) NJ — no tendency assigned NC — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) ND — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) OK — no tendency assigned PA — no tendency assigned SD — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) TX — no tendency assigned WY — Warmer (driver guidance) CT — no tendency assigned MO — no tendency assigned WV — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) IL — no tendency assigned NM — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) AR — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) CA — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) DE — no tendency assigned DC — no tendency assigned HI — no tendency assigned IA — no tendency assigned KY — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) MD — no tendency assigned MI — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) MS — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) MT — Warmer (driver guidance) NH — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) NY — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) OH — no tendency assigned OR — Warmer (driver guidance) TN — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) UT — Warmer VA — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) WA — Warmer (driver guidance) WI — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) NE — no tendency assigned SC — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) ID — Warmer (driver guidance) NV — Warmer VT — Slightly warmer (driver guidance) LA — Slightly cooler (driver guidance) RI — no tendency assigned
SWIPE TO SWITCH
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Strong El Nino, Westerly QBO, -PDO, +PNA
FORECAST REASONING
A strong El Nino and westerly QBO could keep our cool northern air at bay through much of fall leading to extended warmth
PNA cannot be predicted this far out.
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UNOFFICIAL OUTLOOK · This is not an official National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, or Storm Prediction Center forecast. Always consult official forecasts for decisions and safety information.