FORECAST FOUNDRY
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PUBLISHED SEASONAL OUTLOOK

Early look at winter 2026-27

FlamingoCrazyWeather
Winter · Dec 1, 2026 – Feb 28, 2027•Confidence 3/5•Posted Aug 29, 2026
CLIMATE DRIVERS · 6
El Niño · Very strongWesterly QBO (QBO+) · Influence 2/5−PDO · Influence 2/5−NPO · Influence 3/5+PNA · Influence 2/5MJO Phase 6 · DJF · Influence 1/5

TEMPERATURE

AL — Cooler (driver guidance)AK — Warmer (driver guidance)AZ — no tendency assignedCO — Slightly warmer (driver guidance)FL — Cooler (driver guidance)GA — Cooler (driver guidance)IN — no tendency assignedKS — no tendency assignedME — Much warmer (driver guidance)MA — no tendency assignedMN — Much warmer (driver guidance)NJ — no tendency assignedNC — Cooler (driver guidance)ND — Much warmer (driver guidance)OK — Cooler (driver guidance)PA — no tendency assignedSD — Much warmer (driver guidance)TX — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)WY — Much warmer (driver guidance)CT — no tendency assignedMO — no tendency assignedWV — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)IL — no tendency assignedNM — no tendency assignedAR — Cooler (driver guidance)CA — Slightly warmer (driver guidance)DE — no tendency assignedDC — no tendency assignedHI — no tendency assignedIA — no tendency assignedKY — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)MD — no tendency assignedMI — Much warmer (driver guidance)MS — Cooler (driver guidance)MT — Much warmer (driver guidance)NH — Much warmer (driver guidance)NY — Much warmer (driver guidance)OH — no tendency assignedOR — Much warmer (driver guidance)TN — Cooler (driver guidance)UT — Slightly warmer (driver guidance)VA — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)WA — Much warmer (driver guidance)WI — Much warmer (driver guidance)NE — no tendency assignedSC — Cooler (driver guidance)ID — Much warmer (driver guidance)NV — Slightly warmer (driver guidance)VT — Much warmer (driver guidance)LA — Cooler (driver guidance)RI — no tendency assigned
Much warmerSlightly coolerCoolerWarmerSlightly warmer

SWIPE TO SWITCH

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

An active pacific jet stream is very likely.

FORECAST REASONING

The main drivers this winter will be +PNA, Super El Nino, descending westerly QBO and an enhanced pacific jet stream. The best analogs this winter is 2015-16 and 1997-18 IMO. This is an early look at this winter, so this is subject to change.

Analog years: 2015-16 and 1997-89

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UNOFFICIAL OUTLOOK · This is not an official National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, or Storm Prediction Center forecast. Always consult official forecasts for decisions and safety information.