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PUBLISHED SEASONAL OUTLOOK

26-27 Winter Outlook

Connor's Climate Corner
Winter · Dec 1, 2026 – Feb 28, 2027•Confidence 4/5•Posted Sep 20, 2026
CLIMATE DRIVERS · 4
El Niño · Very strongWesterly QBO (QBO+) · Influence 2/5+PDO · Influence 2/5−NPO · Influence 1/5

TEMPERATURE

AL — CoolerAK — Much warmer (driver guidance)AZ — CoolerCO — Slightly coolerFL — CoolerGA — CoolerIN — no tendency assignedKS — no tendency assignedME — WarmerMA — no tendency assignedMN — Much warmerNJ — no tendency assignedNC — Cooler (driver guidance)ND — WarmerOK — CoolerPA — no tendency assignedSD — WarmerTX — CoolerWY — Slightly warmerCT — no tendency assignedMO — no tendency assignedWV — no tendency assignedIL — no tendency assignedNM — CoolerAR — CoolerCA — Slightly coolerDE — no tendency assignedDC — no tendency assignedHI — no tendency assignedIA — Slightly warmerKY — no tendency assignedMD — no tendency assignedMI — Much warmerMS — CoolerMT — Slightly warmerNH — WarmerNY — WarmerOH — no tendency assignedOR — Slightly coolerTN — Cooler (driver guidance)UT — Slightly coolerVA — no tendency assignedWA — Slightly coolerWI — Much warmerNE — Slightly warmerSC — Cooler (driver guidance)ID — Slightly warmerNV — Slightly coolerVT — WarmerLA — CoolerRI — no tendency assigned
Slightly coolerSlightly warmerWarmerMuch warmerCooler

SWIPE TO SWITCH

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

This outlook is based off of a Strong El Nino, Westerly QBO, Negative PDO, and Negative SOI with strong atmospheric coupling

FORECAST REASONING

The intensity of this years El Nino could lead to unexpected conditions

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UNOFFICIAL OUTLOOK · This is not an official National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, or Storm Prediction Center forecast. Always consult official forecasts for decisions and safety information.