FORECAST FOUNDRY
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PUBLISHED SEASONAL OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook

C
connorsclimatecorner
Winter · Dec 1, 2026 – Feb 28, 2027•Confidence 4/5•Posted Aug 20, 2026
CLIMATE DRIVERS · 4
−PDO · Influence 4/5+AO · Influence 5/5−EPO · Influence 4/5El Niño · Very strong

TEMPERATURE

AL — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)AK — Much warmer (driver guidance)AZ — Slightly coolerCO — Slightly coolerFL — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)GA — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)IN — Slightly warmerKS — Slightly warmerME — Much warmer (driver guidance)MA — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)MN — Warmer (driver guidance)NJ — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)NC — Cooler (driver guidance)ND — Warmer (driver guidance)OK — Slightly coolerPA — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)SD — Warmer (driver guidance)TX — Slightly coolerWY — WarmerCT — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)MO — Slightly warmerWV — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)IL — Slightly warmerNM — Slightly coolerAR — Slightly coolerCA — Slightly coolerDE — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)DC — no tendency assignedHI — no tendency assignedIA — Slightly warmerKY — Equal chancesMD — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)MI — WarmerMS — Slightly coolerMT — Much warmer (driver guidance)NH — Much warmer (driver guidance)NY — Much warmer (driver guidance)OH — Equal chancesOR — Much warmer (driver guidance)TN — Slightly coolerUT — Slightly coolerVA — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)WA — Much warmer (driver guidance)WI — Warmer (driver guidance)NE — Slightly warmerSC — Cooler (driver guidance)ID — Much warmer (driver guidance)NV — Slightly coolerVT — Much warmer (driver guidance)LA — Slightly coolerRI — Slightly cooler (driver guidance)
Much warmerSlightly coolerWarmerCoolerSlightly warmerEqual chances

SWIPE TO SWITCH

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Our SUPER El Nino is clearly the driving factor here.

FORECAST REASONING

I suspect our AO won't be under as much pressure with an enhanced subtropical jet stream keeping our polar jet at bay. Let me know what you think....

COMMENTS

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UNOFFICIAL OUTLOOK · This is not an official National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, or Storm Prediction Center forecast. Always consult official forecasts for decisions and safety information.